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The Athletic has live fantasy football lineup advice, rankings, injury news and projections ahead of Week 2.

Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

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What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.

Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note that as the season progresses, I gave great thought to doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smooth everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”

Targets

First, a note based on my many years of playing this game. Week 1 is not just another week. It’s not random, absent injury. Coaches thought all summer about this game and, thus, the way they deployed players in the first week is more meaningful than any other week on the slate. So as we always advise, but for this week especially, respect the stats.

No. 1 for maybe the first time ever in Week 1, or at least the first time since Anquan Boldin’s rookie year, is a rookie — Baltimore’s Zay Flowers. He just crushed Jordan Addison (77th at 13.6%) and is obviously the superior draft pick in our game at ADP — I get that there is much higher expected passing volume in Minnesota so Addison is not really 77th. So if you roster Flowers, he’s not someone you’re looking to sell high — he is the No. 1 WR. However, temper expectations given that the Ravens offense is probably going to line up the way it has historically with (low) passing volume — even with the loss of J.K. Dobbins.

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The second spot is another rookie — Puka Nacua, with a 39.5% market share (Flowers was 45.5%). This should be a higher volume passing offense, too. Nacua is widely available and our formula for receivers is half of market share as a bid limit since receivers are so volatile. So 20% of FAAB for Nacua is reasonable.

What about his running mate, Tutu Atwell, 33rd on our list. I think you could rank Atwell the 33rd WR this week, maybe a little higher given that he accrued so many air yards. Of course, that means higher volatility. The bid limit on him is 10-11% of FAAB.

No. 3 is the supposed No. 2 WR for the Raiders, Jakobi Meyers, who had 38.5% market share. You have to play Meyers if you roster him now in Flex 10 (or make a trade if you’re jammed up). There is a very narrow passing tree in Las Vegas, clearly.

Normally I’d be all over a tight end with 33.3% market share in Week 1, but I’m not chasing Zach Ertz as he’s too far inside the ACL recovery window and was woefully inefficient. But it was 10 targets.

A tight end I’d be in the market for, if desperate, is No. 17 on our overall list, Jake Ferguson of the Cowboys. He’s worth an 8-9% bid, according to my model. I get that the Cowboys may have a super low volume passing offense. There may not be 40 passes thrown by both teams this coming week in the Jets-Cowboys game.

A word about George Kittle. He was fourth in TE market share this week. If that holds, he will be the TE2.

Bijan Robinson netted a 33.3% target share, which illuminates what’s wrong with the Falcons offense, but it’s good for his managers, obviously.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is worth about 10% too. But the Titans are viewed as such a wasteland, I’d go no higher than 5%. Note: Treylon Burks didn’t even chart.

What do we make of Jaylen Waddle getting five targets in a shootout? He was tied with Braxton Berrios in targets — gross. Waddle is a clear No. 2 WR on his team so if a team plays Miami in some neutral way, Tyreek Hill is going to get peppered and Waddle will be forgotten. I don’t think many will play Miami this way however.

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Rashid Shaheed (Saints) was 49th and the model says he’s worth a 9% FAAB bid.

Touches

Right now the good picks according to Week 1 share of plays were Tyler Allgeier (third), Ken Walker (fourth), Bijan Robinson (fifth), Travis Etienne (sixth), James Conner (seventh), Brian Robinson (ninth), Miles Sanders (10th). I’m tabling Jamaal Williams because this is just a three-game deal while Alvin Kamara is suspended.

Throw in Dalvin Cook (12th) and David Montgomery (13th).

But all those running backs don’t help us. They’re all rostered. Maybe Allgeier didn’t get drafted in your league. If he did not — given he’s also the goal-line back, and obviously good — 60% of FAAB (the model of twice market share of plays over 15% says 76% of FAAB, actually).

A more widely available RB is Kenneth Gainwell. He plays on Thursday and has a ribs issue. So his status is uncertain. But they thought about this all summer and decided upon Gainwell as the starter. He’ll remain the starter unless someone takes the job from him. The model says 58% of FAAB as a limit but maybe you want to cut that to 45% given his questionable Week 2 status (that’s the range).

I know you were giving me the side eye with Cook as a good pick based on the model when Breece Hall was so productive, but Hall is clearly is not healthy. Last year, his two long runs were both certain TDs. This year, he got caught from behind. He’s down 1-to-2 steps. Hall’s probably not going to be fully healthy until  late  October.

Javonte Williams ranked 16th and Samaje Perine 31st. I like that ranking for Perine. I can’t bet on Williams staying healthy given the likelihood of re-injury/cascade injury. I’ll be shocked if he gets more than 200 touches this season. Trade for Perine.

The FAAB play I like the most is Joshua Kelley, who you should have drafted, and would have had you used my rankings. He had 21.1% (with a game that was close wire-to-wire), 29th, and is a perfect zeroRB. He’s going to be very expensive though given that Austin Ekeler has ankle issues. The model says 42% of FAAB. You have to go that high. Kelley has the highest floor of all the available backs as someone playable absent an injury to Ekeler, and then he’s a league-winner if Ekeler does get hurt. Basically, he’s Ezekiel Elliott in this 2022 Cowboys-styled offense (but faster/better).

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Cam Akers was so bad and Kyren Williams was not much better. This team might need Kareem Hunt — some upgrade. Akers is either going to be inefficient or hurt. Williams is worth a model max bid of 38% of FAAB but I would not be that aggressive.

Roschon Johnson was target heavy, which we like. He looked the best of the Chicago backs. He’s just over 15%, so it’s borderline whether you want to do 15% of FAAB or 30%. I think it’s going to take close to 30%.

As for the Ravens, Justice Hill, Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon…? Put 10% of FAAB on all of them on one block and take whoever the league gives you because who knows. This is not a situation to be picky.

My sleeper play of the week is Sean Tucker. Rachaad White is so bad, setting records for negative yards relative to expected. I’d go max bid 10% on Tucker. Try to steal him.

Antonio Gibson charted but was 59th. He’s droppable. I preferred him over Robinson because Robinson definitely is not good. But Gibson can’t get out of the doghouse with his fumbling and other miscues. Why not Kareem Hunt reunited with Eric Bieniemy in Washington?

(Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports)

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